Transparency
Every odd we run on, published live.
Pick a category and a tier. Every figure below is produced by the same code that deals the pack, from the cards actually left in the packs — not from a marketing sheet.
426 real cards in the Baseball pool right now · values recorded 13 Aug 2026 (46 days old) · Entered by hand — no price feed
An average is the most flattering true number we could print. We target ≈0.9× expected value and the gap below 1.0× is our margin — but that average is carried almost entirely by rare chase hits. The pack you are actually likely to get is the median beside it.
4,000 sampled $10 packs, dealt by the live engine
- 0% under half the price
- 85% half to full price
- 15% at or above price
- $10.00 USD you paid
- $8.13 USD median
- $9.16 USD average
- $7.99 USD – $11.28 USD middle 80%
Best pack in the sample: $67.00 USD. The tail is real and rare — which is exactly why the average sits above the median.
| Value band | Hit-slot odds | Chance | In the packs |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100+ chase | Unavailablepublished 1 in 250 · 0 in the packs | — | 0cards |
| $30–$99 | 1 in 50 ↑ | 1cards | |
| $10–$29 | 1 in 8 ↑ | 3cards | |
| $3–$9 | 1 in 2 ↑ | 20cards | |
| Under $3 | 1 in 2 ↑ | 402cards |
What each band means
- $100+ chaseThe chase slot. Cards with a market value of $100 or more — the pulls the whole tier ladder is priced around.
- $30–$99Strong hits worth $30–$99 — commander staples, chase rares, holo hits.
- $10–$29Solid $10–$29 cards you would actually sleeve or trade.
- $3–$9Playable $3–$9 cards — real decklist material, not filler.
- Under $3Under $3. Every pool publishes exactly how much of it exists.
How these numbers are produced
The odds are renormalized over the bands that still have stock, because that is genuinely what the dealer does — the hit slot has to land somewhere. When a band runs out it is printed as Unavailable next to the number it was advertised at, and the mass it was carrying moves to the bands below (marked ↑). We never quietly leave the old number on screen.
The dollar figures come from a seeded Monte Carlo run of 4,000 deals per tier, using the same dealing function, the same live stock and the same odds as the table above — including the God Pack roll at its real rate, because that roll is part of the purchase. The seed is fixed, so two people looking at the same inventory see the same numbers and a screenshot stays true.
Every tier deals exactly 4 cards. A higher tier never buys more cards — it only shifts the hit slot upward. Cards are single copies: once one is dealt it is gone, so these probabilities move as the pool empties.
Sell all four straight back is the honest floor: buy a pack and immediately sell every card at the bronze rate, the one every new player starts on. Holding or listing a card can do better; every loyalty tier above bronze recovers more.
Card market values are recorded by hand when a card is checked in, and are quoted in USD. Pack prices, your balance and every buyback are in the same currency, so no exchange rate sits between what a card is worth and what it pays: a card listed at $10.00 buys back at exactly your loyalty rate of that figure. You can display prices in another currency in settings — that is a conversion for reading only, and your card is always charged in USD. A $10.00 USD pack and a $10.00 USD card value are not the same unit.
Where the values come from, and how old they are
Baseball: Entered by hand — no price feed. Values recorded 13 Aug 2026 (46 days old).
Values are imported, not live. Nothing refreshes them automatically — a person has to re-run the importers and redeploy the site, so the date above is exactly as old as it looks.
Across every pool on this page: Card values as of 13 Aug 2026 (46 days old). Imported prices, not live — past our 7-day refresh window.
Every tier of the Baseball pool, side by side
Read the $100 row plainly
We advertise about $90.00 USD of expected market value, and 34% of those packs come back worth under half of what you paid. The median is $57.50 USD. If that changes your mind about buying one, it should — that is why it is on the page.
| Baseball pack | Mean | Median | Under price | Under half | Sold back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92×$9.16 USD | 0.81×$8.13 USD | 85%of packs | 0%of packs | 0.57×median, bronze rate | |
| 0.88×$22.06 USD | 0.85×$21.29 USD | 94%of packs | 0%of packs | 0.60×median, bronze rate | |
| 0.72×$35.92 USD | 0.67×$33.50 USD | 93%of packs | 4%of packs | 0.47×median, bronze rate | |
| 0.51×$50.84 USD | 0.57×$57.50 USD | 100%of packs | 34%of packs | 0.40×median, bronze rate |
Under price / under half: the share of packs whose 4 cards are worth less than the price, and less than half of it. Sold back: buy a pack, sell all 4 cards straight back at the Bronze rate — the honest floor. The numbers for the pack you are buying are on its game page and on the purchase sheet, before you pay.
Hit-slot odds by tier — Baseball
Probability that your hit slot lands in each value band, per price tier, renormalized over the bands that still have stock. Every tier deals exactly 4 cards — a higher tier only shifts these odds upward.
These are live odds, computed from the cards in the packs right now — see the table for each band.
| Value band | $10 Pack | $25 Pack | $50 Pack | $100 Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100+ chase | Unavailablepublished 1 in 250 · 0 in the packs | Unavailablepublished 1 in 83 · 0 in the packs | Unavailablepublished 1 in 29 · 0 in the packs | Unavailablepublished 1 in 11 · 0 in the packs |
| $30–$99 | 2.0%1 in 50 ↑ | 7.1%1 in 14 ↑ | 18.7%1 in 5 ↑ | 41.8%1 in 2 ↑ |
| $10–$29 | 12.0%1 in 8 ↑ | 33.4%1 in 3 ↑ | 51.8%1 in 2 ↑ | 46.2%1 in 2 ↑ |
| $3–$9 | 40.2%1 in 2 ↑ | 40.5%1 in 2 ↑ | 22.8%1 in 4 ↑ | 9.9%1 in 10 ↑ |
| Under $3 | 45.8%1 in 2 ↑ | 19.0%1 in 5 ↑ | 6.7%1 in 15 ↑ | 2.2%1 in 46 ↑ |
$100+ chase odds across every category
One number to compare pools: how often the hit slot lands a $100+ card. Assorted packs draw from the union of every live pool with shared stock depletion.
| Category | $10 Pack | $25 Pack | $50 Pack | $100 Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs | |
| 1 in 250 | 1 in 83 | 1 in 29 | 1 in 11 | |
| 1 in 250 | 1 in 83 | 1 in 29 | 1 in 11 | |
| 1 in 250 | 1 in 83 | 1 in 29 | 1 in 11 | |
| not offered | 1 in 83 | 1 in 29 | 1 in 11 | |
| no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs | no $100+ card in the packs |
God Pack — 1 in 4,000
Rolled exactly once per purchase, at every tier, before the pack is built. On a hit, all 4 slots draw from the top value bands ($30+ and $100+ chase) instead of the normal hit-plus-filler build. Same odds whether you paid $10 or $100 — and yes, that number is the constant in the engine, not a promo line.